Your regional office
Montreal
1000, Rue de la Gauchetière West, Suite 3100, Montreal - Quebec H3B 4W5Telephone : +1 514 288 8161
Contact usSelect your investor profile:
This content is only for the selected type of investor.
Individual investor?
The case for a Swiss defence
Why Switzerland's equities could benefit if the cyclical stock rally runs out of steam
Written by
Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist
Anastassios Frangulidis, Head of Multi Asset Zürich
A defining feature of the stock market rally of the past two years has been the strong performance of cyclical stocks, those most sensitive to the ups and downs of the business cycle.
Since July 2016, shares of consumer discretionary, materials and IT companies have outpaced those of firms operating in traditionally defensive industries such as health care and telecommunications by 40 per cent. That’s the third widest performance gap on record. What is more, cyclical stocks are now trading at a 26 per cent premium on a cycle-adjusted basis to their defensive counterparts, a level not seen since 2010.
All this looks unsustainable at a time when global economic growth appears to be slowing. It also explains why Swiss stocks could turn out to be a bright spot in the next six months or so. Switzerland has the highest share of defensive stocks among major economies – at 60 per cent of the Swiss benchmark index’s market capitalisation. These are mainly pharmaceuticals and consumer staple businesses. Crucially, they come with attractive valuations – according to our calculations, Swiss stocks are trading at their cheapest levels relative to their global peers since 1995 (see chart).
Swiss stocks becoming cheap
Ratio of monthly total returns between MSCI Switzerland vs MSCI All-Country World in local currency (base = January 1995)
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, data covering period 06.01.1995 - 11.05.2018
more from multi-asset team
Change is in the air
Pictet Asset Management Strategy Unit
May 2018
Equity bulls beware
Supriya Menon, Senior Multi Asset Strategist
March 2018
Important legal information
This marketing document is issued by Pictet Asset Management. It is neither directed to, nor intended for distribution or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or domiciled or located in, any locality, state, country or jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Only the latest version of the fund’s prospectus, the KIID (Key Investor Information Document), regulations, annual and semi-annual reports may be relied upon as the basis for investment decisions. These documents are available on assetmanagement.pictet.
This document is used for informational purposes only and does not constitute, on Pictet Asset Management part, an offer to buy or sell solicitation or investment advice. It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date. The effective evolution of the economic variables and values of the financial markets could be significantly different from the indications communicated in this document.
Information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Pictet Asset Management has not taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this document are suitable for any particular investor and this document is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future. Before making any investment decision, investors are recommended to ascertain if this investment is suitable for them in light of their financial knowledge and experience, investment goals and financial situation, or to obtain specific advice from an industry professional.
The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document may fall as well as rise and, as a consequence, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Risk factors are listed in the fund’s prospectus and are not intended to be reproduced in full in this document.
Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future performance. Performance data does not include the commissions and fees charged at the time of subscribing for or redeeming shares. This marketing material is not intended to be a substitute for the fund’s full documentation or for any information which investors should obtain from their financial intermediaries acting in relation to their investment in the fund or funds mentioned in this document.
EU countries: the relevant entity is Pictet Asset Management (Europe) S.A., 15, avenue J. F. Kennedy, L-1855 Luxembourg
Switzerland: the relevant entity is Pictet Asset Management SA , 60 Route des Acacias – 1211 Geneva 73
Hong Kong: this material has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission or any other regulatory authority. The issuer of this material is Pictet Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited.
Singapore: this material is issued by Pictet Asset Management (Singapore) Pte Ltd. This material is intended only for institutional and accredited investors and it has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
For Australian investors, Pictet Asset Management Limited (ARBN 121 228 957) is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license, under the Corporations Act 2001.
For US investors, Shares sold in the United States or to US Persons will only be sold in private placements to accredited investors pursuant to exemptions from SEC registration under the Section 4(2) and Regulation D private placement exemptions under the 1933 Act and qualified clients as defined under the 1940 Act. The Shares of the Pictet funds have not been registered under the 1933 Act and may not, except in transactions which do not violate United States securities laws, be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Management Fund Companies of the Pictet Group will not be registered under the 1940 Act.
For US investors, Shares sold in the United States or to US Persons will only be sold in private placements to accredited investors pursuant to exemptions from SEC registration under the Section 4(2) and Regulation D private placement exemptions under the 1933 Act and qualified clients as defined under the 1940 Act. The Shares of the Pictet funds have not been registered under the 1933 Act and may not, except in transactions which do not violate United States securities laws, be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Management Fund Companies of the Pictet Group will not be registered under the 1940 Act.
Pictet Asset Management Inc. (Pictet AM Inc) is responsible for effecting solicitation in North America to promote the portfolio management services of Pictet Asset Management Limited (Pictet AM Ltd) and Pictet Asset Management SA (Pictet AM SA).
In Canada Pictet AM Inc. is registered as Portfolio Manager authorised to conduct marketing activities on behalf of Pictet AM Ltd and Pictet AM SA. In the USA, Pictet AM Inc. is registered as an SEC Investment Adviser and its activities are conducted in full compliance with the SEC rules applicable to the marketing of affiliate entities as prescribed in the Adviser Act of 1940 ref. 17CFR275.206(4)-3.