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重要公告
近日，瑞士百达资产管理集团(以下简称“瑞士百达”) 发现有人在中国内地和香港未经我们的授权而非法使用我们的名称 (包括“瑞士百达”、“Pictet”)、商标和/或标示向中国的个人投资者非法募集资金，如假借“瑞士百达”的名义，通过手机应用程序及聊天群组向散户提供炒股培训及开户炒股服务等不法活动，已有中国个人投资者声称因上述欺诈行为而遭受损失。对于任何未经本公司授权而使用我们的名称、商标和/或标示的侵权行为，可能导致本集团名誉受损，我们保留追究相关侵权人法律责任的所有权利。
瑞士百达特此提醒公众注意并郑重声明如下：
- 瑞士百达的唯一官方网站是：www.am.pictet，瑞士百达资产管理的手机应用程序 (即Pictet AM) 只能于App Store 及 Google Play 下载。其他网站及其载有的应用程序均与本公司无关。
- 瑞士百达未在中国内地注册或运营任何网站、网络应用程序或网络平台(包括应用程序、官方微博、微信公众号等)，也不会使用微信、QQ或其它即时通讯工具建立群组在中国进行任何募集销售行为。
- 瑞士百达在中国内地与香港只会通过持牌金融机构向个人投资者销售产品，并无直接销售渠道。除了通过中国内地与香港的基金互认安排销售“瑞士百达策略收益基金”之外，瑞士百达未在中国内地向公众发行任何基金或理财产品。
我们提醒广大投资者提高警惕，在进行任何投资之前进行充分的尽职调查。如您因不法分子的欺诈行为已遭受损失，应及时向当地警方报案。如涉及个人信息在香港的披露，请您向个人资料私隐专员公署或有关保护个人资料私隐的香港相关部门提出投诉。
瑞士百达资产管理(香港)有限公司
2021年3月30日
Important Note
Recently it has come into the attention of Pictet Asset Management group ("Pictet") that our trade name "Pictet" and/or our logo have been misused by unauthorized persons in Mainland China and Hong Kong for illegal fund-raising from Chinese investors, such as providing retail investors with stock trading training and account opening and stock trading services in the name of "Pictet" via mobile apps and chat groups. Some Chinese individual investors have alleged that they have suffered losses due to such fraud. We reserve all our legal rights to take legal actions against such unauthorized usage of our name and/or logo which may lead to reputational loss on us.
Pictet would like to alert the public and hereby declares the following:
- Pictet's only official website is www.am.pictet and Pictet Asset Management's mobile apps (i.e. Pictet AM) are only available for download at App Store and Google Play. All other webpages and apps other than aforementioned are unrelated to Pictet.
- Pictet has not registered or operated any website, online application or platform in Mainland China, such as app, official Weibo or WeChat account. We will not conduct any distribution activities in China via chat groups of WeChat, QQ or any other instant communication tools.
- We only sell products through licensed financial institutions to individual investors in Hong Kong and Mainland China and have no direct sales channels. Except for Pictet Strategic Income fund distributed under the Mainland China – Hong Kong Mutual Recognition of Funds scheme, Pictet has not issued any fund or wealth management product to retail investors in Mainland China.
We would like to remind all investors to be vigilant and conduct sufficient due diligence before making any investment. If you have suffered any loss due to illegal activities, it is advisable to timely report the case to local police. If any disclosure of personal information is involved in Hong Kong, you may file the complaint with the Office of the Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data or any other relevant Hong Kong authorities for protection of personal data privacy.
Pictet Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited
30 March 2021
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This information on this website is for information purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, solicitation for offer or offer by PAM(HK) to subscribe, purchase or sell any security or interest of Pictet pooled products in the PRC, nor shall it be construed as any undertaking of PAM(HK) to complete any transaction in relation to Pictet pooled products and services.
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Pricing political risk
Investment in emerging markets demands insight into political and sovereign risk. We have a model for that.
Written by
Patrick Zweifel, Chief Economist
Brexit and Donald Trump’s erratic administration may have reawakened investors to the market significance of political risk in developed economies, but it’s never been far from the surface in the emerging world.
Components of the Country Risk index
[1] Deviation from 2Y moving average (%); [2] 4 quarter moving average (% of GDP); [3] Deviation from 3Y moving average (%); [4] Months of goods imports; [5] % of GDP; [6] Weighted average of World Bank indicators. Source: Pictet Asset Management; World Bank Group.
Venezuela’s economic crisis, Brazilian scandals, Turkey’s creep towards dictatorship, South Africa’s embattled leadership, Russia’s reassertion of its role in global geopolitics and North Korea’s sabre-rattling all have a bearing on the behaviour of emerging market sovereign and corporate bonds.
That matters, because weaker governance and rising political risk are associated with higher sovereign yield spreads and rising market volatility.
In order to assess emerging market political and economic risks and help portfolio managers determine credit quality, we have developed a six-factor sovereign risk model. The model assesses a country’s economic environment, its fiscal fundamentals, private debt, external finances, openness and governance.
Each of these factors is derived from a number of indicators. For instance a country’s public finances profile is determined by the moving average of its fiscal balance and government debt to GDP ratios on a four quarter rolling basis.
These indicators are then ranked against those of the 29 other countries being assessed. So, for example, Ukraine has the 26th biggest government debt to GDP ratio among its peers and seventh worst fiscal balance, giving it an average score of 16.5 on public finances.
Each of the six components is determined in a similar way and they are then averaged to give an overall score. So for Ukraine, the latest score is 18.9 against an average for emerging market countries we cover of around 15 – the best country, ie with the lowest score, is Russia at 10.8 while Egypt is worst on 20.2.1
This ranking system helps to highlight relative changes in a country’s fundamentals, which is a means of flagging up significant improvement or deterioration in risk characteristics. A country can have a poor ranking but if it has shown improvement over the past year, its overall profile will be better than if it had been static. These changes also allow us to identify where problems could be building or where new investment opportunities are emerging.
If a country scores poorly, it becomes a signal for us to probe further – particularly if the problem is associated with rising public or private debt. Changes in currency risk are analysed using a proprietary econometric model that assesses how much the currency might be over- or undervalued. Foreign exchange risk is particularly critical to emerging market local currency debt, where currency factors account for as much as 70 per cent of the fund's fund relative returns in any one year – though Pictet Asset Management's emerging market debt team's long term target is 50 per cent relative returns for its local currency portfolio.
Spotting change
The composite indicator doesn’t put much weight on monthly changes in the underlying measures because so many are subject to statistical noise. Instead, the comparisons are made on a three month-on-three month or a year-on-year basis, often measured against three year moving averages.
So, for example, although Ukraine scores worse than average on our Emerging Country Risk Index (CRI), and is only just above Venezuela in the rankings, it is the most improved among the countries in the EM universe being analysed. By contrast Colombia’s metrics have shown the most significant erosion. So while the CRI is flagging up a bullish case for Ukraine, notwithstanding its relatively poor overall score, it is turning gloomy on Colombia.
Spreading risk
Country Risk Index and Emerging Market Bond Index spread, average of past 5-years
Source: Pictet Asset Management, World Bank, CEIC, Datastream. Data as at 08.09.17.
Although their primary focus is bottom-up analysis, our portfolio managers use the CRI in their top-down assessment of global risks in order to determine the relative attractions of investment opportunities and to shed light on the different factors involved in a country’s risk profile. That’s important because they estimate half of emerging market debt returns are driven by macroeconomic factors.
While it’s true that emerging countries are making sustained efforts to improve their institutional framework and implement structural reforms – ironically, at a time when developed countries are becoming more susceptible to populist and nationalist pressures2– fickle regimes still represent investor risks. Not least when they start to undermine their own institutions. So although India is pushing hard to reform its economy and to cut corruption, Turkey is swimming against the current of its own 20th century history by becoming increasingly autocratic and ever less secular.
Getting it right matters for performance, particularly when political risk triggers market volatility. For instance, over the past decade, the benchmark emerging market local currency bond index has suffered 45 weeks of drawdowns greater than 2 per cent and six where they were more than 5 per cent. By taking the temperature of the market, which includes understanding the dynamics of political risk, our emerging market bond portfolio managers aim to avoid the worst of these sharp market declines – during the six worst weeks of the past decade, the Pictet-Emerging Local Currency Debt strategy on average outperformed the index by more than 80 basis points.
Having a framework in which to understand and appraise macroeconomic risks is crucial for investing in emerging markets, even as they mature.
more on emerging market debt
Chinese bonds: evolving in leaps and bounds
Cary Yeung, Head of Greater China Debt
May 2017
Important legal information
This marketing document is issued by Pictet Asset Management. It is neither directed to, nor intended for distribution or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or domiciled or located in, any locality, state, country or jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Only the latest version of the fund’s prospectus, the KIID (Key Investor Information Document), regulations, annual and semi-annual reports may be relied upon as the basis for investment decisions. These documents are available on assetmanagement.pictet.
This document is used for informational purposes only and does not constitute, on Pictet Asset Management part, an offer to buy or sell solicitation or investment advice. It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date. The effective evolution of the economic variables and values of the financial markets could be significantly different from the indications communicated in this document.
Information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Pictet Asset Management has not taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this document are suitable for any particular investor and this document is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future. Before making any investment decision, investors are recommended to ascertain if this investment is suitable for them in light of their financial knowledge and experience, investment goals and financial situation, or to obtain specific advice from an industry professional.
The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document may fall as well as rise and, as a consequence, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Risk factors are listed in the fund’s prospectus and are not intended to be reproduced in full in this document.
Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future performance. Performance data does not include the commissions and fees charged at the time of subscribing for or redeeming shares. This marketing material is not intended to be a substitute for the fund’s full documentation or for any information which investors should obtain from their financial intermediaries acting in relation to their investment in the fund or funds mentioned in this document.
EU countries: the relevant entity is Pictet Asset Management (Europe) S.A., 15, avenue J. F. Kennedy, L-1855 Luxembourg
Switzerland: the relevant entity is Pictet Asset Management SA , 60 Route des Acacias – 1211 Geneva 73
Hong Kong: this material has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission or any other regulatory authority. The issuer of this material is Pictet Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited.
Singapore: this material is issued by Pictet Asset Management (Singapore) Pte Ltd. This material is intended only for institutional and accredited investors and it has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
For Australian investors, Pictet Asset Management Limited (ARBN 121 228 957) is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license, under the Corporations Act 2001.
For US investors, Shares sold in the United States or to US Persons will only be sold in private placements to accredited investors pursuant to exemptions from SEC registration under the Section 4(2) and Regulation D private placement exemptions under the 1933 Act and qualified clients as defined under the 1940 Act. The Shares of the Pictet funds have not been registered under the 1933 Act and may not, except in transactions which do not violate United States securities laws, be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Management Fund Companies of the Pictet Group will not be registered under the 1940 Act.
For US investors, Shares sold in the United States or to US Persons will only be sold in private placements to accredited investors pursuant to exemptions from SEC registration under the Section 4(2) and Regulation D private placement exemptions under the 1933 Act and qualified clients as defined under the 1940 Act. The Shares of the Pictet funds have not been registered under the 1933 Act and may not, except in transactions which do not violate United States securities laws, be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Management Fund Companies of the Pictet Group will not be registered under the 1940 Act.
Pictet Asset Management Inc. (Pictet AM Inc) is responsible for effecting solicitation in North America to promote the portfolio management services of Pictet Asset Management Limited (Pictet AM Ltd) and Pictet Asset Management SA (Pictet AM SA).
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