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重要公告
[2020年 9 月 3 日]，香港 – 瑞士百达资产管理(香港)有限公司(以下简称「瑞士百达资产管理」) 发现载有某些声称瑞士百达资产管理手机应用程序的可疑网站，提醒公众注意。
瑞士百达资产管理提醒公众人士，本公司之官方网址为 www.am.pictet，瑞士百达资产管理的手机应用程序 (即Pictet AM) 只能于App Store 及 Google Play 下载。客户应从此等渠道下载本公司的应用程序。其他网站及其载有的应用程序均与本公司无关。此外, 瑞士百达资产管理只会通过持牌金融机构销售产品，并无直接销售渠道。假若你因投资而蒙受损失或已汇款到这些网页或手机应用程序中指定的帐户, 请你尽快向警方报案。 假若你担心已经披露了个人资料，请你向个人资料私隐专员公署提出投诉。
Important Note
[3 September 2020], Hong Kong – Pictet Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (“Pictet Asset Management”) would like to alert the public of certain suspicious webpages that might be hosting mobile apps that claimed to be from Pictet Asset Management.
Pictet Asset Management would like to remind the public that our official website is www.am.pictet and Pictet Asset Management’s mobile apps (i.e. Pictet AM) are only available for download at App Store and Google Play. Clients should only download Pictet Asset Management’s apps from these two channels. All other webpages and apps other than aforementioned are unrelated to Pictet Asset Management. In addition, Pictet Asset Management will only sell products through licensed financial institutions and have no direct sales channels. If you are concerned that you have suffered losses as a result of making any investment or transferring money to an account specified in such webpages or mobile app, please report to the police immediately. If you are concerned that you may have disclosed sensitive personal information, please file the complaint with the Office of the Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data.
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This information on this website is for information purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, solicitation for offer or offer by PAM(HK) to subscribe, purchase or sell any security or interest of Pictet pooled products in the PRC, nor shall it be construed as any undertaking of PAM(HK) to complete any transaction in relation to Pictet pooled products and services.
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Pricing political risk
Investment in emerging markets demands insight into political and sovereign risk. We have a model for that.
Written by
Patrick Zweifel, Chief Economist
Brexit and Donald Trump’s erratic administration may have reawakened investors to the market significance of political risk in developed economies, but it’s never been far from the surface in the emerging world.
Components of the Country Risk index
[1] Deviation from 2Y moving average (%); [2] 4 quarter moving average (% of GDP); [3] Deviation from 3Y moving average (%); [4] Months of goods imports; [5] % of GDP; [6] Weighted average of World Bank indicators. Source: Pictet Asset Management; World Bank Group.
Venezuela’s economic crisis, Brazilian scandals, Turkey’s creep towards dictatorship, South Africa’s embattled leadership, Russia’s reassertion of its role in global geopolitics and North Korea’s sabre-rattling all have a bearing on the behaviour of emerging market sovereign and corporate bonds.
That matters, because weaker governance and rising political risk are associated with higher sovereign yield spreads and rising market volatility.
In order to assess emerging market political and economic risks and help portfolio managers determine credit quality, we have developed a six-factor sovereign risk model. The model assesses a country’s economic environment, its fiscal fundamentals, private debt, external finances, openness and governance.
Each of these factors is derived from a number of indicators. For instance a country’s public finances profile is determined by the moving average of its fiscal balance and government debt to GDP ratios on a four quarter rolling basis.
These indicators are then ranked against those of the 29 other countries being assessed. So, for example, Ukraine has the 26th biggest government debt to GDP ratio among its peers and seventh worst fiscal balance, giving it an average score of 16.5 on public finances.
Each of the six components is determined in a similar way and they are then averaged to give an overall score. So for Ukraine, the latest score is 18.9 against an average for emerging market countries we cover of around 15 – the best country, ie with the lowest score, is Russia at 10.8 while Egypt is worst on 20.2.1
This ranking system helps to highlight relative changes in a country’s fundamentals, which is a means of flagging up significant improvement or deterioration in risk characteristics. A country can have a poor ranking but if it has shown improvement over the past year, its overall profile will be better than if it had been static. These changes also allow us to identify where problems could be building or where new investment opportunities are emerging.
If a country scores poorly, it becomes a signal for us to probe further – particularly if the problem is associated with rising public or private debt. Changes in currency risk are analysed using a proprietary econometric model that assesses how much the currency might be over- or undervalued. Foreign exchange risk is particularly critical to emerging market local currency debt, where currency factors account for as much as 70 per cent of the fund's fund relative returns in any one year – though Pictet Asset Management's emerging market debt team's long term target is 50 per cent relative returns for its local currency portfolio.
Spotting change
The composite indicator doesn’t put much weight on monthly changes in the underlying measures because so many are subject to statistical noise. Instead, the comparisons are made on a three month-on-three month or a year-on-year basis, often measured against three year moving averages.
So, for example, although Ukraine scores worse than average on our Emerging Country Risk Index (CRI), and is only just above Venezuela in the rankings, it is the most improved among the countries in the EM universe being analysed. By contrast Colombia’s metrics have shown the most significant erosion. So while the CRI is flagging up a bullish case for Ukraine, notwithstanding its relatively poor overall score, it is turning gloomy on Colombia.
Spreading risk
Country Risk Index and Emerging Market Bond Index spread, average of past 5-years
Source: Pictet Asset Management, World Bank, CEIC, Datastream. Data as at 08.09.17.
Although their primary focus is bottom-up analysis, our portfolio managers use the CRI in their top-down assessment of global risks in order to determine the relative attractions of investment opportunities and to shed light on the different factors involved in a country’s risk profile. That’s important because they estimate half of emerging market debt returns are driven by macroeconomic factors.
While it’s true that emerging countries are making sustained efforts to improve their institutional framework and implement structural reforms – ironically, at a time when developed countries are becoming more susceptible to populist and nationalist pressures2– fickle regimes still represent investor risks. Not least when they start to undermine their own institutions. So although India is pushing hard to reform its economy and to cut corruption, Turkey is swimming against the current of its own 20th century history by becoming increasingly autocratic and ever less secular.
Getting it right matters for performance, particularly when political risk triggers market volatility. For instance, over the past decade, the benchmark emerging market local currency bond index has suffered 45 weeks of drawdowns greater than 2 per cent and six where they were more than 5 per cent. By taking the temperature of the market, which includes understanding the dynamics of political risk, our emerging market bond portfolio managers aim to avoid the worst of these sharp market declines – during the six worst weeks of the past decade, the Pictet-Emerging Local Currency Debt strategy on average outperformed the index by more than 80 basis points.
Having a framework in which to understand and appraise macroeconomic risks is crucial for investing in emerging markets, even as they mature.
more on emerging market debt
Chinese bonds: evolving in leaps and bounds
Cary Yeung, Head of Greater China Debt
May 2017
Important legal information
This marketing document is issued by Pictet Asset Management. It is neither directed to, nor intended for distribution or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or domiciled or located in, any locality, state, country or jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Only the latest version of the fund’s prospectus, the KIID (Key Investor Information Document), regulations, annual and semi-annual reports may be relied upon as the basis for investment decisions. These documents are available on assetmanagement.pictet.
This document is used for informational purposes only and does not constitute, on Pictet Asset Management part, an offer to buy or sell solicitation or investment advice. It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date. The effective evolution of the economic variables and values of the financial markets could be significantly different from the indications communicated in this document.
Information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Pictet Asset Management has not taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this document are suitable for any particular investor and this document is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future. Before making any investment decision, investors are recommended to ascertain if this investment is suitable for them in light of their financial knowledge and experience, investment goals and financial situation, or to obtain specific advice from an industry professional.
The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document may fall as well as rise and, as a consequence, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Risk factors are listed in the fund’s prospectus and are not intended to be reproduced in full in this document.
Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future performance. Performance data does not include the commissions and fees charged at the time of subscribing for or redeeming shares. This marketing material is not intended to be a substitute for the fund’s full documentation or for any information which investors should obtain from their financial intermediaries acting in relation to their investment in the fund or funds mentioned in this document.
EU countries: the relevant entity is Pictet Asset Management (Europe) S.A., 15, avenue J. F. Kennedy, L-1855 Luxembourg
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For US investors, Shares sold in the United States or to US Persons will only be sold in private placements to accredited investors pursuant to exemptions from SEC registration under the Section 4(2) and Regulation D private placement exemptions under the 1933 Act and qualified clients as defined under the 1940 Act. The Shares of the Pictet funds have not been registered under the 1933 Act and may not, except in transactions which do not violate United States securities laws, be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Management Fund Companies of the Pictet Group will not be registered under the 1940 Act.
For US investors, Shares sold in the United States or to US Persons will only be sold in private placements to accredited investors pursuant to exemptions from SEC registration under the Section 4(2) and Regulation D private placement exemptions under the 1933 Act and qualified clients as defined under the 1940 Act. The Shares of the Pictet funds have not been registered under the 1933 Act and may not, except in transactions which do not violate United States securities laws, be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Management Fund Companies of the Pictet Group will not be registered under the 1940 Act.
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