Mandarin - Pictet Asset Management

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重要公告

[2021年6月15日] 近日，瑞士百达资产管理 (以下简称“瑞士百达资管”) 发现有人在中国内地和香港未经我们的授权而非法使用我们的名称 (包括“瑞士百达”、“Pictet” 、“瑞士百达资管”)、商标和/或标示向中国的个人投资者非法募集资金，如假借“瑞士百达资管”的名义，通过手机应用程序及聊天群组向散户提供炒股培训及开户炒股服务等不法活动，已有中国个人投资者声称因上述欺诈行为而遭受损失。对于任何未经本公司授权而使用我们的名称、商标和/或标示的侵权行为，可能导致本集团名誉受损，我们保留追究相关侵权人法律责任的所有权利。

瑞士百达资管特此提醒公众注意并郑重声明如下：

瑞士百达资管的唯一官方网站是：www.assetmanagement.pictet，瑞士百达资管的手机应用程序 (即Pictet AM) 只能于App Store 及 Google Play 下载。其他网站及其载有的应用程序均与本公司无关。
瑞士百达资管母公司瑞士百达集团在中国内地注册的唯一官方微信公众号是” 瑞士百达 Pictet” (微信号：Pictet_1805) 。瑞士百达集团同时为旗下百达摄影奖经营官方微博“百达摄影奖PrixPictet”。瑞士百达资管未有在中国内地独立注册或运营任何网站、网络应用程序或网络平台(包括应用程序或官方微博等)，也不会使用微信、QQ或其它即时通讯工具建立群组在中国进行任何募集销售行为。
瑞士百达资管在中国内地与香港只会通过持牌金融机构向个人投资者销售产品，并无直接销售渠道。除了通过中国内地与香港的基金互认安排销售“瑞士百达策略收益基金”之外，瑞士百达资管未在中国内地向公众发行任何基金或理财产品。

我们提醒广大投资者提高警惕，在进行任何投资之前进行充分的尽职调查。如您因不法分子的欺诈行为已遭受损失，应及时向当地警方报案。如涉及个人信息在香港的披露，请您向个人资料私隐专员公署或有关保护个人资料私隐的香港相关部门提出投诉。

瑞士百达资产管理(香港)有限公司

Important Note

[15 June 2021] Recently it has come into the attention of Pictet Asset Management ("Pictet AM") that our trade name “瑞士百达”、“Pictet” 、“瑞士百达资管” and/or our logo have been misused by unauthorized persons in Mainland China and Hong Kong for illegal fund-raising from Chinese investors, such as providing retail investors with stock trading training and account opening and stock trading services in the name of "Pictet Asset Management" via mobile apps and chat groups. Some Chinese individual investors have alleged that they have suffered losses due to such fraud. We reserve all our legal rights to take legal actions against such unauthorized usage of our name and/or logo which may lead to reputational loss on us.

Pictet would like to alert the public and hereby declares the following:

Pictet AM's only official website is www.am.pictet and Pictet Asset Management's mobile apps (i.e. Pictet AM) are only available for download at App Store and Google Play. All other webpages and apps other than aforementioned are unrelated to Pictet.
Pictet AM’s mother company Pictet Group’s only official Wechat account is “瑞士百达 Pictet” (Wechat ID: Pictet_1805). Prix Pictet, a Pictet Group’s photography award also owned a Weibo account “百达摄影奖PrixPictet”. Pictet AM has not registered or operated any website, online application or platform in Mainland China under its own name, such as app and official Weibo account. We will not conduct any distribution activities in China via chat groups of WeChat, QQ or any other instant communication tools.
We only sell products through licensed financial institutions to individual investors in Hong Kong and Mainland China and have no direct sales channels. Except for Pictet Strategic Income fund distributed under the Mainland China – Hong Kong Mutual Recognition of Funds scheme, Pictet AM has not issued any fund or wealth management product to retail investors in Mainland China.

We would like to remind all investors to be vigilant and conduct sufficient due diligence before making any investment. If you have suffered any loss due to illegal activities, it is advisable to timely report the case to local police. If any disclosure of personal information is involved in Hong Kong, you may file the complaint with the Office of the Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data or any other relevant Hong Kong authorities for protection of personal data privacy.

Pictet Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited

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Go back

February 2017

It was once the world’s primary source of cheap manufactured goods. But now, the Chinese economy is becoming a centre of technological innovation and one that’s increasingly powered by domestic consumption. This transformation is creating winners and losers among Chinese companies, resulting in a deep pool of opportunities for equity investors in general and for long/short strategies in particular.

From cheap labour to discerning shoppers

china income — Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit: The Chinese consumer in 2030; November 2016

Disposable incomes in China have more than doubled over the past decade. The proportion of the population falling in the middle of its income distribution is expected to rise to 75 per cent by 2030 from 60 per cent in 2015, with some of the strongest growth seen in the higher income bracket, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

As a result, consumers are becoming far more discerning – 48 per cent now always buy the best quality and most expensive clothes that they can afford, compared with just 28 per cent in 2011.¹ The era of “one size fits all” cheap goods is over. Companies that can cater to these changing tastes could reap significant rewards. Spirits producer Kweichow Moutai, for example, is forecast to post revenue growth in the mid-teens for 2016, and to maintain that pace over the next two years.²

With greater prosperity, people have more money to spend on 'fun' services. They are travelling, eating out, buying online games, sending real and virtual gifts to Internet stars and investing in various financial products in a bid to compensate for the low interest rates on offer on traditional bank accounts.

Leisure activities are a feature of the long portion of our portfolio. One of our investments is a company involved in the gaming industry in Macau, an autonomous region on the south coast of China famed for its casinos. It is a cash business model, with operating cash flows supported by official restrictions on the number of gambling licenses granted.

Tech upgrade

china sectors — Source: Datastream, as at 31.12.2016. Note that Financials comprises Financials and Real Estate for comparison purposes; the MSCI Golden Dragon Index captures the equity market performance of large and mid cap China securities (H shares, B shares, Red-Chips and P-Chips) and non-domestic China securities in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

There is also radical change afoot in manufacturing. China is no longer focused on producing cheap textiles and shoes – much of that has moved to other places such as Vietnam or Indonesia. The new Chinese boom now is in technology, such as automation, artificial intelligence, smarter devices or e-commerce – major trends that we also seek to capitalise on in the long segment of the portfolio.

Chinese Internet giants Alibaba and Tencent, for example, were tiny a decade ago. Now, Alibaba accounts for a third of the world’s e-commerce based on gross merchandise value (GMV).³ The penetration of technology has been remarkable: in 2016, 200 million Chinese used their mobile to pay for goods – 46 per cent more than in the previous year.⁴

The tech boom has made Greater China’s investment universe far more diverse. IT now accounts for 32 per cent of the stock market in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, up 13 percentage points from just five years ago.

Beware of government-dependent sectors and outdated giants

On the short side, we don’t like government-initiated sectors that rely on quotas and are not directly influenced by market demand. For example, we have been very sceptical about the business models of anti-pollution environmental companies. Although China clearly needs to invest to combat pollution, we think that businesses are more likely to spend the money on becoming greener if there are laws and/or government subsidies. Such sectors are therefore very vulnerable to any changes in government policy and tend to have low cash flow.

We are also cautious about companies in the old economy – the manufacturing giants who have not adapted to changing demand and continue to produce low-end goods that are now available cheaper elsewhere.

Trump compromise would avoid 'lose-lose' scenario

There are, of course, a number of clouds on the horizon, not least US foreign policy. We expect an escalation of tensions between the US and China should Donald Trump implement his campaign promises on trade. He has been very vocal in calling for an end to cheap imports from China and campaigning for manufacturing jobs to be brought back to the US. We don’t know whether this is just rhetoric, but we do know that some of the people chosen for his new administration are hostile to China. In such an environment, it would make sense to avoid – or even short – companies that export a lot to the US and would thus be vulnerable to trade restrictions.

However, the consequences of any protectionist policies wouldn’t be fully positive for the US either. If Trump delivers on his pledge to impose a 45 per cent import tax on Chinese goods, it would have a knock-on impact on US inflation and affordability. Although he is taking a hard line, we hope he will reach a compromise with China and avoid an outright trade war, which would be a 'lose-lose' scenario for both countries.

Debt pile: opportunity inside danger

The other major concern is China’s debt burden – especially private debt. China’s overall debt to GDP ratio is 250 per cent – high, but not as high as, for example, Japan at over 350 per cent. The worry is that, unlike in Japan, Chinese debt is mostly corporate. If the economy slows down, companies will struggle to repay loans and be forced out of business. That is one reason why Chinese banks are currently on such cheap valuations – investors are concerned about the scale of their non-performing loans (NPLs).

The onus is on the government to step in and resolve this situation. After all, most of China’s banks are government-owned, and roughly two-thirds of the outstanding corporate debt is held by state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

We believe that 2017 could be the year of reckoning on the debt front – and potentially of great opportunity. Famously, the Chinese word for “crisis” is made up of one character meaning “danger” and another “opportunity”. If the debt crisis is resolved, then we could see a very good year in Chinese equity markets, especially as corporate profits and industrial activity are showing signs of improvement.

In order for that to happen, we would need to see the government taking on some of the corporate debts, alongside continued monetary stimulus – but not so much as to cause inflation problems. For now, however, the debt situation remains a risk.

Barbell bets for a boom

To sidestep some of the risks and position for a possible boom, we have built a barbell portfolio. On the one hand, we are investing in the new economy, in sectors such as the Internet where companies are typically debt-free, cash-rich and enjoying structural growth. These stocks should do well regardless of what happens to the corporate debt pile.

We also have some beleaguered industrial companies and ports, which are at the bottom of their earnings cycles. If there are reforms, then these battered industrial companies should benefit. We think the risk reward is quite good – the potential for investment gains is considerable while the scope for a further fall in their share price is limited because they have already fallen so much. These are our call options on the possibility of reform.

At the same time, managing risk is top of our agenda. We constantly monitor overall market and macroeconomic risks and stand ready to adjust the net exposure of the portfolio to take advantage of opportunities or mitigate losses in down markets. The flexibility of being able to actively shift our positioning helped the portfolio over the past year – both during the sell-off in early 2016 and the rally in the third quarter.

An opportunity for long/short

Many people are understandably sceptical on China because they cannot understand how a country whose corporate debt burden has exploded can avoid a blow-up. We agree that there are some challenges – albeit ones that intelligent government intervention could effectively disperse. At the same time, however, China is an economy with close to 1.4 billion consumers whose disposable income is growing every year.

Correctly identifying the stocks that are likely to perform well or lose out amid the economic transformation, can be especially attractive in Greater China where the median returns dispersion of stocks in the MSCI Golden Dragon over the past 20 years stands at 19.5 compared with 13.5 for the S&P 500.⁵ We believe that all adds up to create very fertile ground for bottom-up investment opportunities for long/short strategies.

About

Lan Wang Simond

About

Lan Wang Simond

Lan Wang Simond joined Pictet in 1997 and is Head of and a Senior Investment Manager in the Mandarin Total Return Equities team. Prior to her current position, Lan managed an absolute return mandate within the Greater China region from 2000, as well as a long-only Greater China fund from its inception in May 2003. Previously, Lan was a Fund Manager and Senior Analyst in the Financial Research Department and specialised in the Asia ex Japan region. Before joining Pictet, she worked as a fund manager with Gérifonds, the fund management company of the Banque Cantonale Vaudoise, where she managed an Asia ex Japan fund and a China fund. Born in China, Lan obtained a degree from the Beijing Normal UNiversity's School of Foreign Languages and Literatures before coming to Switzerland, where she gained a degree in Business Administration from the Faculty of Business and Economics of the University of Lausanne. She is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) charterholder, and is fluent in Mandarin, English and French.

Important legal information

This marketing document is issued by Pictet Asset Management. It is neither directed to, nor intended for distribution or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or domiciled or located in, any locality, state, country or jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Only the latest version of the fund’s prospectus, the KIID (Key Investor Information Document), regulations, annual and semi-annual reports may be relied upon as the basis for investment decisions. These documents are available on assetmanagement.pictet.

This document is used for informational purposes only and does not constitute, on Pictet Asset Management part, an offer to buy or sell solicitation or investment advice. It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date. The effective evolution of the economic variables and values of the financial markets could be significantly different from the indications communicated in this document.

Information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Pictet Asset Management has not taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this document are suitable for any particular investor and this document is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future. Before making any investment decision, investors are recommended to ascertain if this investment is suitable for them in light of their financial knowledge and experience, investment goals and financial situation, or to obtain specific advice from an industry professional.

The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document may fall as well as rise and, as a consequence, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Risk factors are listed in the fund’s prospectus and are not intended to be reproduced in full in this document.

Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future performance. Performance data does not include the commissions and fees charged at the time of subscribing for or redeeming shares. This marketing material is not intended to be a substitute for the fund’s full documentation or for any information which investors should obtain from their financial intermediaries acting in relation to their investment in the fund or funds mentioned in this document.

EU countries: the relevant entity is Pictet Asset Management (Europe) S.A., 15, avenue J. F. Kennedy, L-1855 Luxembourg
Switzerland: the relevant entity is Pictet Asset Management SA , 60 Route des Acacias – 1211 Geneva 73

Hong Kong: this material has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission or any other regulatory authority. The issuer of this material is Pictet Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited.

Singapore: this material is issued by Pictet Asset Management (Singapore) Pte Ltd. This material is intended only for institutional and accredited investors and it has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

For Australian investors, Pictet Asset Management Limited (ARBN 121 228 957) is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license, under the Corporations Act 2001.

For US investors, Shares sold in the United States or to US Persons will only be sold in private placements to accredited investors pursuant to exemptions from SEC registration under the Section 4(2) and Regulation D private placement exemptions under the 1933 Act and qualified clients as defined under the 1940 Act. The Shares of the Pictet funds have not been registered under the 1933 Act and may not, except in transactions which do not violate United States securities laws, be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Management Fund Companies of the Pictet Group will not be registered under the 1940 Act.

Pictet Asset Management Inc. (Pictet AM Inc) is responsible for effecting solicitation in North America to promote the portfolio management services of Pictet Asset Management Limited (Pictet AM Ltd) and Pictet Asset Management SA (Pictet AM SA).

In Canada Pictet AM Inc. is registered as Portfolio Manager authorised to conduct marketing activities on behalf of Pictet AM Ltd and Pictet AM SA. In the USA, Pictet AM Inc. is registered as an SEC Investment Adviser and its activities are conducted in full compliance with the SEC rules applicable to the marketing of affiliate entities as prescribed in the Adviser Act of 1940 ref. 17CFR275.206(4)-3.

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Some of the photographs published on this website have been taken by Stéphane Couturier, Magnus Arrevad, Lundi 13, Phovea, 13Photo, Magnum Photos, Club Photo Pictet.

The Chinese dragon: powered by consumers

China's increasingly affluent and discerning consumers are opening up new investment opportunities. A long/short approach can help minimise risk.

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