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重要公告
近日,瑞士百达资产管理集团(以下简称“瑞士百达”) 发现有人在中国内地和香港未经我们的授权而非法使用我们的名称 (包括“瑞士百达”、“Pictet”)、商标和/或标示向中国的个人投资者非法募集资金,如假借“瑞士百达”的名义,通过手机应用程序及聊天群组向散户提供炒股培训及开户炒股服务等不法活动,已有中国个人投资者声称因上述欺诈行为而遭受损失。对于任何未经本公司授权而使用我们的名称、商标和/或标示的侵权行为,可能导致本集团名誉受损,我们保留追究相关侵权人法律责任的所有权利。
瑞士百达特此提醒公众注意并郑重声明如下:
我们提醒广大投资者提高警惕,在进行任何投资之前进行充分的尽职调查。如您因不法分子的欺诈行为已遭受损失,应及时向当地警方报案。如涉及个人信息在香港的披露,请您向个人资料私隐专员公署或有关保护个人资料私隐的香港相关部门提出投诉。
瑞士百达资产管理(香港)有限公司
2021年3月30日
Important Note
Recently it has come into the attention of Pictet Asset Management group ("Pictet") that our trade name "Pictet" and/or our logo have been misused by unauthorized persons in Mainland China and Hong Kong for illegal fund-raising from Chinese investors, such as providing retail investors with stock trading training and account opening and stock trading services in the name of "Pictet" via mobile apps and chat groups. Some Chinese individual investors have alleged that they have suffered losses due to such fraud. We reserve all our legal rights to take legal actions against such unauthorized usage of our name and/or logo which may lead to reputational loss on us.
Pictet would like to alert the public and hereby declares the following:
We would like to remind all investors to be vigilant and conduct sufficient due diligence before making any investment. If you have suffered any loss due to illegal activities, it is advisable to timely report the case to local police. If any disclosure of personal information is involved in Hong Kong, you may file the complaint with the Office of the Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data or any other relevant Hong Kong authorities for protection of personal data privacy.
Pictet Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited
30 March 2021
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So far in 2018 an emerging market investor has seen macroeconomic and geopolitical factors dominate front and centre. The list includes: Fed rate hikes, US China trade war risks, twin deficits and currency devaluations in Turkey and Argentina, economic sanctions on Russia, unpredictable political outcomes in Mexico, Brazil, Malaysia, and the prospect of denuclearizing North Korea.
Against this backdrop it is easy to forget that the main driver of EM equity returns is typically stock specific factors.
Source: Deutsch Bank, May 2018
So why is so much discussion centred on macro?
Well, by and large, I would argue it is because for most people talking about macro and geopolitics is easier than in-depth company analysis. For example, discussing the political situation in India or the crisis in Turkey is much more interesting than talking about the supply/demand balance of the Chinese cement market. (Although members in our team would certainly dispute that!). Also, countries and macro considerations are something you can visit and see. If you visit Brazil, you can arguably form an assessment of Brazil as a country and its culture. It is something one can actually experience. The MSCI EM Utilities index is not palpable in the same way and the financial statements of its constituents are not particularly memorable for most observers. Additionally, macro is largely what the media concentrates on. For example, mainstream news channels will focus on Russia’s political interactions with the West, rather than the encouraging shareholder return policies implemented by many Russian oil producers.
Despite the overinflated extent to which we discuss macro, the reality is that there is only a minor link between GDP growth and stock market returns. GDP growth can drive earnings, but the stock market’s growth is not the same as the economic growth. In particular, this thinking ignores valuations as the starting point, which can be a significant driver of stock prices. It is true, however, that actual GDP growth and market returns display a positive link in most instances (Korea being the exception that proves the rule in the left hand chart below). This however is an ex-post analysis. As investors in the present moment, we only have access to GDP forecasts and unfortunately as the right hand chart below shows these are very poor predictors of stock market returns.
Source: UBS, May 2018
So if stock markets are mainly driven by stock specific risk, and economic forecasts are largely futile, why bother looking at macro data? Of course macro matters but as we said already mainly at the extremes. And by extremes, we mean at points of financial and economic crisis. We work closely with Pictet Asset Management’s economics department to monitor 7 key indicators that have preceded previous financial crises. They are considered relative to their history and relative to other economies. The key benefit of these indicators is they can help us calibrate the conviction of our stock picks and determine critical areas of risk. For example, over the years Chinese financials, and property names in particular, should have been caught up in some crisis by now if we had listened to the macro headlines. But the reality is that these sectors have outperformed global emerging markets.
Volatility has clearly returned to global markets, and in the emerging world the volatility is often amplified due to the economic and political precariousness of specific countries. More than ever, focusing on what really matters is critical – and most of the time that is stock picking. So to answer my initial headline. Yes, macro matters some of the time when picking EM stocks but never more than stock-specific, ‘microeconomic’ factors.
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This marketing document is issued by Pictet Asset Management. It is neither directed to, nor intended for distribution or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or domiciled or located in, any locality, state, country or jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Only the latest version of the fund’s prospectus, the KIID (Key Investor Information Document), regulations, annual and semi-annual reports may be relied upon as the basis for investment decisions. These documents are available on assetmanagement.pictet.
This document is used for informational purposes only and does not constitute, on Pictet Asset Management part, an offer to buy or sell solicitation or investment advice. It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date. The effective evolution of the economic variables and values of the financial markets could be significantly different from the indications communicated in this document.
Information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Pictet Asset Management has not taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this document are suitable for any particular investor and this document is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future. Before making any investment decision, investors are recommended to ascertain if this investment is suitable for them in light of their financial knowledge and experience, investment goals and financial situation, or to obtain specific advice from an industry professional.
The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document may fall as well as rise and, as a consequence, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Risk factors are listed in the fund’s prospectus and are not intended to be reproduced in full in this document.
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