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重要公告
[2021年6月15日] 近日，瑞士百达资产管理 (以下简称“瑞士百达资管”) 发现有人在中国内地和香港未经我们的授权而非法使用我们的名称 (包括“瑞士百达”、“Pictet” 、“瑞士百达资管”)、商标和/或标示向中国的个人投资者非法募集资金，如假借“瑞士百达资管”的名义，通过手机应用程序及聊天群组向散户提供炒股培训及开户炒股服务等不法活动，已有中国个人投资者声称因上述欺诈行为而遭受损失。对于任何未经本公司授权而使用我们的名称、商标和/或标示的侵权行为，可能导致本集团名誉受损，我们保留追究相关侵权人法律责任的所有权利。
瑞士百达资管特此提醒公众注意并郑重声明如下：
- 瑞士百达资管的唯一官方网站是：www.assetmanagement.pictet，瑞士百达资管的手机应用程序 (即Pictet AM) 只能于App Store 及 Google Play 下载。其他网站及其载有的应用程序均与本公司无关。
- 瑞士百达资管母公司瑞士百达集团在中国内地注册的唯一官方微信公众号是” 瑞士百达 Pictet” (微信号：Pictet_1805) 。瑞士百达集团同时为旗下百达摄影奖经营官方微博“百达摄影奖PrixPictet”。瑞士百达资管未有在中国内地独立注册或运营任何网站、网络应用程序或网络平台(包括应用程序或官方微博等)，也不会使用微信、QQ或其它即时通讯工具建立群组在中国进行任何募集销售行为。
- 瑞士百达资管在中国内地与香港只会通过持牌金融机构向个人投资者销售产品，并无直接销售渠道。除了通过中国内地与香港的基金互认安排销售“瑞士百达策略收益基金”之外，瑞士百达资管未在中国内地向公众发行任何基金或理财产品。
我们提醒广大投资者提高警惕，在进行任何投资之前进行充分的尽职调查。如您因不法分子的欺诈行为已遭受损失，应及时向当地警方报案。如涉及个人信息在香港的披露，请您向个人资料私隐专员公署或有关保护个人资料私隐的香港相关部门提出投诉。
瑞士百达资产管理(香港)有限公司
Important Note
[15 June 2021] Recently it has come into the attention of Pictet Asset Management ("Pictet AM") that our trade name “瑞士百达”、“Pictet” 、“瑞士百达资管” and/or our logo have been misused by unauthorized persons in Mainland China and Hong Kong for illegal fund-raising from Chinese investors, such as providing retail investors with stock trading training and account opening and stock trading services in the name of "Pictet Asset Management" via mobile apps and chat groups. Some Chinese individual investors have alleged that they have suffered losses due to such fraud. We reserve all our legal rights to take legal actions against such unauthorized usage of our name and/or logo which may lead to reputational loss on us.
Pictet would like to alert the public and hereby declares the following:
- Pictet AM's only official website is www.am.pictet and Pictet Asset Management's mobile apps (i.e. Pictet AM) are only available for download at App Store and Google Play. All other webpages and apps other than aforementioned are unrelated to Pictet.
- Pictet AM’s mother company Pictet Group’s only official Wechat account is “瑞士百达 Pictet” (Wechat ID: Pictet_1805). Prix Pictet, a Pictet Group’s photography award also owned a Weibo account “百达摄影奖PrixPictet”. Pictet AM has not registered or operated any website, online application or platform in Mainland China under its own name, such as app and official Weibo account. We will not conduct any distribution activities in China via chat groups of WeChat, QQ or any other instant communication tools.
- We only sell products through licensed financial institutions to individual investors in Hong Kong and Mainland China and have no direct sales channels. Except for Pictet Strategic Income fund distributed under the Mainland China – Hong Kong Mutual Recognition of Funds scheme, Pictet AM has not issued any fund or wealth management product to retail investors in Mainland China.
We would like to remind all investors to be vigilant and conduct sufficient due diligence before making any investment. If you have suffered any loss due to illegal activities, it is advisable to timely report the case to local police. If any disclosure of personal information is involved in Hong Kong, you may file the complaint with the Office of the Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data or any other relevant Hong Kong authorities for protection of personal data privacy.
Pictet Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited
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A tale of two emerging market crises
Argentina and Turkey have been at the heart of the recent sell-off. Investors should look to policymakers and governments for clues as to where these markets are headed.
Written by
Anjeza Kadilli
Senior Economist
Nikolay Markov
Senior Economist
Debt not the main issue
Argentina and Turkey share large fiscal and current account deficits. That said, debt is not the main issue; as Figure 1 below shows, their debt relative to GDP is relatively low.
The main issue is that investors have lost confidence in their ability to control inflation.
Fig.1 - Argentina and Turkey among the least indebted markets in terms of GDP
Total debt by sector for developed and emerging economies
Source: Pictet Asset Management, BIS, CEIC, Datastream, based on data available as at 31.07.2018
Glass half full
In Argentina, the Macri administration cut policy rates in late 2017, hopeful it would succeed in reducing inflation and mindful of 2019 elections. But it acted too early and caused loss of investor confidence in the central bank, which was forced to raise rates by around 13 percentage points to stem the currency's decline.
Fig.2 - Argentina's central bank cut policy rates too early
Argentina's CPI inflation, target range and policy rate
Source: Pictet Asset Management, CEIC, Datastream. Data as at 31.07.2018
This, together with other policy mistakes, cost the governor of the central bank his job, and saw the country burn through significant foreign currency reserves. Growth forecasts have almost halved since, and Argentina had to request to be bailed out by the IMF.
However, we believe that the worst is over if the government commits to fighting inflation over the medium term. In our view, necessary fiscal reforms are justified but will require political stamina to implement, especially as they will in themselves be inflationary.
We also believe they need to establish a more credible target range for inflation, higher than their current 15%.
Glass half empty
We are a lot less optimistic about Turkey under the rule of re-elected President Erdogan.
Firstly, as the chart below shows, there is a large and chronic current account deficit. Turkey's private sector (both households and corporates) is highly leveraged due to high domestic consumption and a low savings rate. The country has no choice but to finance its current account deficit mainly through foreign investments, and in USD, EUR or JPY as external investors' confidence in the lira has plummeted.
Fig.3 - Turkey's Current account
Breakdown by % GDP
Source: Pictet Asset Management, CEIC, Datastream. Data as at 31.07.2018
In addition to this external imbalance, the major domestic shortcoming is high inflation (see Fig.4 below), above 15 percent, and on a very steep trend. This is due to the lira's chronic weakness (down 56 percent against the dollar year to-date1) as well as rising energy prices.
With inflation expected to rise further, as the lira continues to depreciate, tighter monetary policy is urgently needed. However the Central Bank (CBRT) has disappointed by refraining from raising rates at its July meeting.
Fig.4 - Turkey's major domestic shortcoming is high inflation
Turkey's headline CPI, food & non-food inflation
Source: Pictet Asset Management, CEIC, Datastream. Data as at 31.07.2018
Unlike in Argentina, we have limited confidence in Turkey's political regime to make the right calls for the economy. A focus on growth-enhancing measures instead of inflation control appears to be undermining monetary policy.
What's more, the decision by President Erdogan to appoint his son-in-law to head the new finance & treasury ministry raises concerns about the independence of the central bank.
In conclusion we think Turkey’s macro vulnerabilities, coupled with political concerns, put the country close to a breaking point. In our view, all the macro ingredients are now present for a full-blown balance of payments crisis.
CHART FROM OUR EMERGING CORPORATE BONDS TEAM
By Karen Lam, Senior Client Portfolio Manager
As the chart below shows, high yield spreads in emerging markets have widened whilst in the US they continue to grind tighter.To us, brewing crises in Argentina and China have caused indiscriminate selling in the EM bloc. This creates opportunities for investors to buy the high yield credits of emerging markets that have suffered unduly, at particularly attractive levels compared with US high yield.
Fig.5 - EM High yield looks good value?
EM B & BB differential with US B & BB (OAS differential, bps)
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Pictet Asset Management analysis. Data to 27.07.2018.
MARKET WATCH
MARKET WATCH DATA
31.07.2018
Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, data as at 31.07.2018 and in USD. Equity indices are quoted on a net dividend reinvested basis; bond and commodity indices are quoted on a total return basis. The currency rates evolution is treated as a performance calculation based on FX rates.
READ More about emerging markets
After the fall
Alain Nsiona Defise, Mary-Therese Barton
August 2018
Where are emerging market currencies headed?
Patrick Zweifel
July 2018
Important legal information
This marketing document is issued by Pictet Asset Management. It is neither directed to, nor intended for distribution or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or domiciled or located in, any locality, state, country or jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Only the latest version of the fund’s prospectus, the KIID (Key Investor Information Document), regulations, annual and semi-annual reports may be relied upon as the basis for investment decisions. These documents are available on assetmanagement.pictet.
This document is used for informational purposes only and does not constitute, on Pictet Asset Management part, an offer to buy or sell solicitation or investment advice. It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date. The effective evolution of the economic variables and values of the financial markets could be significantly different from the indications communicated in this document.
Information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Pictet Asset Management has not taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this document are suitable for any particular investor and this document is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future. Before making any investment decision, investors are recommended to ascertain if this investment is suitable for them in light of their financial knowledge and experience, investment goals and financial situation, or to obtain specific advice from an industry professional.
The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document may fall as well as rise and, as a consequence, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Risk factors are listed in the fund’s prospectus and are not intended to be reproduced in full in this document.
Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future performance. Performance data does not include the commissions and fees charged at the time of subscribing for or redeeming shares. This marketing material is not intended to be a substitute for the fund’s full documentation or for any information which investors should obtain from their financial intermediaries acting in relation to their investment in the fund or funds mentioned in this document.
EU countries: the relevant entity is Pictet Asset Management (Europe) S.A., 15, avenue J. F. Kennedy, L-1855 Luxembourg
Switzerland: the relevant entity is Pictet Asset Management SA , 60 Route des Acacias – 1211 Geneva 73
Hong Kong: this material has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission or any other regulatory authority. The issuer of this material is Pictet Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited.
Singapore: this material is issued by Pictet Asset Management (Singapore) Pte Ltd. This material is intended only for institutional and accredited investors and it has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
For Australian investors, Pictet Asset Management Limited (ARBN 121 228 957) is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license, under the Corporations Act 2001.
For US investors, Shares sold in the United States or to US Persons will only be sold in private placements to accredited investors pursuant to exemptions from SEC registration under the Section 4(2) and Regulation D private placement exemptions under the 1933 Act and qualified clients as defined under the 1940 Act. The Shares of the Pictet funds have not been registered under the 1933 Act and may not, except in transactions which do not violate United States securities laws, be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Management Fund Companies of the Pictet Group will not be registered under the 1940 Act.
For US investors, Shares sold in the United States or to US Persons will only be sold in private placements to accredited investors pursuant to exemptions from SEC registration under the Section 4(2) and Regulation D private placement exemptions under the 1933 Act and qualified clients as defined under the 1940 Act. The Shares of the Pictet funds have not been registered under the 1933 Act and may not, except in transactions which do not violate United States securities laws, be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Management Fund Companies of the Pictet Group will not be registered under the 1940 Act.
Pictet Asset Management Inc. (Pictet AM Inc) is responsible for effecting solicitation in North America to promote the portfolio management services of Pictet Asset Management Limited (Pictet AM Ltd) and Pictet Asset Management SA (Pictet AM SA).
In Canada Pictet AM Inc. is registered as Portfolio Manager authorised to conduct marketing activities on behalf of Pictet AM Ltd and Pictet AM SA. In the USA, Pictet AM Inc. is registered as an SEC Investment Adviser and its activities are conducted in full compliance with the SEC rules applicable to the marketing of affiliate entities as prescribed in the Adviser Act of 1940 ref. 17CFR275.206(4)-3.